The sky is falling

Back in September last year, the Wall Street Journal wrote an article about how low oil prices could lead to a global recession. An article by the Guardian last Friday repeated the sentiment with a suggestion that low oil prices could hurt the stock market.

Look out, Chicken Little, the sky is falling!

The doom and gloom argument appears to be based on two factors:

  1. Falling oil prices will hurt oil producers like Exxon and Chevron. Since these firms are large, falling profits will lead to lower share prices which in turn will pull down the market index and lead to a drop in the overall market. This would bad for shareholders;
  2. Secondly, the falling oil price will make it more difficult for oil companies to repay outstanding debts. When oil prices were high many Wall Street banks lent money to finance new drilling expeditions, and Dealogic estimates that the oil and gas industry has roughly $500 billion in outstanding debt. Increased levels of distressed debts could lead to stress in the banking sector.

Oil producers and the banks who backed their optimistic projects during the boom years will stand to lose in the new reality of low oil prices.

Luckily though the economy is composed of more than just banks and oil producers.

Richard Branson, the billionaire entrepreneur and philanthropist, provided some sound wisdom at Davos recently when he said that “oil prices are good for the consumer, they are good for most businesses. They are very good for the airline businesses. And obviously if you are an oil company they are not so good for you. But I think what the market has missed is that with oil below $30 a barrel and likely to stay there for a long time, that there is no need to try to make up a recession. This is going to be the greatest boost to the economy that you can imagine.”

In support of Branson’s view, The Economist reported on Saturday January 22nd that “the economies that have enjoyed the strongest GDP growth in the past year have .. been oil importers: India, Pakistan and countries in east Africa.” Similarly, in the IMF’s latest forecast, published on Tuesday January 19th, the economies that were spared a GDP growth downgrade — China, India, Germany, Britain, Spain and Italy — were all net oil importers.

While it is true that a slump in oil prices will produce winners and losers, and there are likely to be stormy waters ahead for countries like Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Nigeria, the good news is that the sky is not falling.

Negotiating An Offer Of Employment

Negotiating An Offer Of Employment 3

(Source: Flickr)

If you have received an offer of employment from the consulting firm of your choice, you may still want to negotiate the terms of the offer.

How should you go about doing this?

Use your bargaining power

Your ability to negotiate the terms of your offer depends on how much bargaining power you have. The consulting industry is currently experiencing growth in various markets, and so it may be possible to negotiate a more favorable employment contract.

Whatever the state of the economy, it is worth considering negotiating the terms of your offer. After you accept your offer of employment you will have virtually no bargaining power, and so the time for negotiation is beforehand.

If you are friendly and businesslike then negotiating needn’t create a negative impression, on the contrary, it demonstrates that you have a keen business sense and a healthy level of self confidence.

Obtain written confirmation

You need to obtain written confirmation of all terms that you successfully negotiate.

Terms to negotiate

There are a number of offer terms that you may want to negotiate, these include:

  1. Office location;
  2. Start date;
  3. Compensation;
  4. Starting position;
  5. Annual leave; and
  6. Offer response deadline.

1. Office location

To negotiate a change of office location, a first step might be to explain the reason for your request to the recruitment manager. If they agree to look into the matter, make sure you agree on a date to follow up with them.

If your request is turned down, try to identify a person in your target office who can vouch for the transfer. When you find someone, contact them to explain your situation and ask if there’s anything he or she can do to help you. Offer to meet with them in person.

2. Start date

In a weak economy, you may be able to negotiate a later start date. This benefits the firm by allowing them to start paying your salary later than planned.

3. Salary and bonus

Given the strong growth of the consulting industry, it may be possible to negotiate an improved remuneration package.

The best form of leverage is to have another offer that pays more money. If you are an MBA or lateral hire and your previous salary was higher then you can use this as leverage. You may be able to convince the recruiter that you are being undervalued.

4. Starting position

If the job offer is for a position at a lower level than you believe is justified given your qualifications and experience then you can ask for higher starting position. If this doesn’t work, then you might want to ask for a shorter performance review period, which will allow you to prove yourself and get promoted sooner.

5. Annual leave

If you don’t like the amount of annual leave provided, then you might want to try asking for more. If that fails, ask about the firms unpaid leave policy.

6. Offer response deadline

Consulting firms are in a war for talent and can sometimes give applicants an “exploding offer”, which expires within a very short time period.

Exploding offers are designed to pressure applicants to accept an offer as soon as possible in order to minimise the risk that the applicant accepts a more favourable offer from another employer.

If you need an extension to the offer deadline, ask for it. It’s a very common thing to get more time to make a decision.

[For more information on consulting interviews, please download “The HUB’s Guide to Consulting Interviews“.]

Bricks and Mortar

Builders intuitively know that if you are building a house then you need both bricks and mortar, and they need to be arranged in a certain way in order to construct a safe, functional and attractive residence.

The bricks provide strength, the mortar holds it all together, and the architect’s plan ensures that they are arranged in an appealing way.

This seems like a common sense approach to building.

However, when it comes to building organisations in the corporate world, this basic logic regularly gets thrown by the way side.

All too often, organisations idolize super stars. The solid bricks. Those individual over-achievers who it is believed will enable organisational success.

But how much effort is spent on giving people the philosophy, community, time and space that they need to work together in a productive and harmonious way?

And how much care is taken to ensure that the right people get placed in the right parts of the organisation for maximum effect?

People are important, and talented individuals will often be able to make a big contribution. But wonderful organisations (like buildings that are able to stand the test of time) will always be more than the sum of their parts.

Accepting An Offer Of Employment

Accepting An Offer Of Employment

(Source: Flickr)

If you are offered a position with a consulting firm (and are happy with the terms of the offer) then feel free to accept it.

You can talk to the recruitment management to let them know your decision, and you will also need to sign, date, and return a copy of the offer letter.

Be sure to make a copy for your records.

If you have successfully negotiated any terms of the offer, then you need to capture the additional or amended terms in writing.

Ideally the firm should provide you with an updated offer letter reflecting the agreed terms of the offer.

However, the recruitment manager may conveniently forget to provide this, in which case you should set out the agreed terms in an email and send it to the recruitment manager.

The firm may try to wriggle out of its obligations later, and so you need to have written evidence of what was agreed.

[For more information on consulting interviews, please download “The HUB’s Guide to Consulting Interviews“.]